What is Asian handicap?

Asian handicap is a form of spread betting that originated in Asia and has become widely used in soccer betting worldwide. It differs from the standard European handicap in two important ways: it eliminates the possibility of a draw on the handicap (resulting in a two-option market rather than three), and it introduces quarter-goal lines that split the stake between two adjacent handicaps.

The term "Asian handicap" was coined by the journalist Joe Saumarez Smith in 1998, but the practice itself predates the term by decades, having been used in Indonesian and Chinese gambling markets.

Whole goal handicaps

A whole goal Asian handicap adds or subtracts a whole number of goals to one team's final score. For example, if the local team has a handicap of −1, one goal is subtracted from its final score before determining the result of the bet.

If the match ends 2−0 in favor of the local team, applying the −1 handicap produces an adjusted score of 1−0: the local team still wins, and a bet on the local team wins.

If the match ends 1−0, the adjusted score is 0−0: a draw on the handicap. In Asian handicap, a draw on a whole goal line results in a push — the stake is returned to the player, and no profit or loss is recorded.

If the match ends 0−0, the adjusted score is −1 to 0: the local team loses on the handicap, and a bet on the local team loses.

Half goal handicaps

Half goal handicaps (−0.5, −1.5, −2.5, etc.) eliminate the possibility of a push. Because no match can produce a half-goal difference, the handicap always produces a decisive winner.

For example, with a −1.5 handicap on the local team:

Match result 3−1 → adjusted 1.5−1 → local wins the handicap.
Match result 2−1 → adjusted 0.5−1 → local loses the handicap.

Half goal Asian handicaps are functionally identical to standard European handicaps at the same line. The difference becomes apparent with quarter goal lines.

Quarter goal handicaps

Quarter goal handicaps (−0.25, −0.75, −1.25, −1.75, etc.) are the distinguishing feature of Asian handicap. A quarter goal line splits the player's stake equally between the two nearest half-goal and whole-goal lines.

A handicap of −0.75 is equivalent to half the stake on −0.5 and half the stake on −1.0. A handicap of −0.25 is equivalent to half the stake on 0 (level) and half the stake on −0.5.

For example, a ¤100 bet on the local team at −0.75 at a decimal odd of 1.95:

This is split into:
— ¤50 on the local team at −0.5
— ¤50 on the local team at −1.0

If the local team wins by 2 or more goals: both halves win. Return = ¤50 · 1.95 + ¤50 · 1.95 = ¤195.

If the local team wins by exactly 1 goal: the −0.5 half wins (local wins on handicap), the −1.0 half is a push (draw on handicap, stake returned). Return = ¤50 · 1.95 + ¤50 = ¤147.50.

If the match is a draw or the visit team wins: both halves lose. Return = ¤0.

This splitting mechanism creates a more granular range of outcomes than standard half-goal handicaps, allowing bookmakers to set more precise lines and players to take positions with finer control over their risk.

Level handicap and draw no bet

The Asian handicap of 0 — also called the level handicap — is equivalent to "draw no bet." The player bets on a team to win, and if the match ends in a draw, the stake is returned. This effectively converts a three-option market into a two-option market by removing the draw.

The handicap of −0.25 is a split between 0 (draw no bet) and −0.5. It gives the player a partial refund if the match is a draw and a full loss only if the selected team loses the match.

Calculating implied probability

For half-goal Asian handicaps, the implied probability is calculated exactly as for any standard decimal odd:

i = 1 / d

For quarter-goal handicaps, the situation is more complex because the stake is split. The effective probability of profit depends on the probabilities of three zones: winning both halves, winning one half and pushing the other, and losing both halves. The implied probability of the quoted odd no longer maps directly to a single outcome probability.

In practice, the most reliable approach is to decompose the quarter-goal line into its two component half-lines, estimate the probability of each relevant score range, and calculate the expected return from the combination.

Why Asian handicap is widely used

Asian handicap markets are popular for several reasons:

— Lower margins: Because Asian handicap markets have only two options (no draw), the bookmaker's margin is typically lower than in three-option head to head markets. The competition among bookmakers in Asian markets is intense, further compressing margins.

— Elimination of the draw: The draw is the most difficult outcome to predict in soccer. By removing it (or converting it to a push), Asian handicap reduces the number of possible outcomes and simplifies the analysis.

— Precision: The quarter-goal lines allow the bookmaker to set lines that more accurately reflect the perceived difference in strength between the two teams, and allow the player to choose the exact level of risk he is willing to take.

— Market depth: Asian handicap markets on major soccer events are among the most liquid betting markets in the world, with large volumes and narrow spreads. This liquidity makes them attractive to both sharp and recreational players.